Takfiri Taliban Pakistan through a letter to press tried to justify their immoral, illogical and un-Islamic war against the state of Pakistan and its people. Following points have been raised to justify killing of about 35,000 innocent Muslims including women, children, civilians young & old and soldiers:
1. It is justified to fight against believing Muslims, because there was fighting among early Muslims.
2. After defeat of USSR the Jihad in Afghanistan was not against USSR or USA, it was against the Muslims of Afghanistan, the Mujahedin who had fought against USSR. This was justified through Fatwas by Ulema [Islamic Scholars] on the grounds of implementation of Shariah rule in Afghanistan. If Jihad was justified against pious Mujahedeen of Afghanistan, why it is not justified against people of Pakistan who are neither Mujahedeen nor scholars of Islam? If some non Muslims would have given such logic to justify mass murders, one might excuse him being ignorant, but such argument from those claiming to be pious and learned Muslims reflect nothing but their total ignorance to Quran, Sunnah & Islamic history. Keep reading >>>
Recently the arrest and imprisonment of Rimsha Masih, an 11-year old Christian girl, by Pakistani authorities in the nation's capital, Islamabad, on charges of blasphemy has created an uproar in international media. No one is bothered to killing of hundreds of Muslims in Burma and Assam in India. While criticizing any law, the local cultural, social and religious sensitivities must be kept in view. The law of the land, sentiments and sensitivities of local population must respected. West has abandoned the Bible and law, they have allowed gay marriages, Holocaust denial is a crime in most of European countries, which seems absurd to many people including Muslims, but its their choice. If some does not like these laws he can't force his will upon them. Pakistan is in state of covert and overt war since 1979, when USSR occupied Afghanistan. The events of 9/11 gave it an other turn as USA also jumped in physically. Innocent people are being killed by US drones on one side and by suicide bombers of Taliban on the other side. This has adverse psychological effects on people, especially lowering tolerance and patience threshold. Moreover the mismanagement, economic disparity and corruption by inefficient governments fully supported by USA and co, has further aggravated the situation. However it does not mean that they are killing fellow countrymen brothers Christians. A person living in peaceful environments thousands of miles away in different cultural environments can not understand. Christians in Pakistan are as much safe or unsafe as any other Pakistani. Rather they are batter off because Muslims are killed in large numbers even while praying in mosques by suicide bombers or by US drones. Some issues are exploited by vested interests out of proportion intentionally or due to ignorance. Effort is being made to put the issue in proper perspective.
Blasphemy law and conviction in Pakistan: The Facts and Fiction which every one else must know:
In many societies blasphemy in some form or another has been an offense punishable by law. In the Christian religion, blasphemy has been regarded as a sin by moral theologians; St. Thomas Aquinas described it as a sin against faith. For the Muslim it is blasphemy to speak contemptuously not only of God but also of Prophet Muhammad [pbuh]. The Mosaic Law decreed death by stoning as the penalty for the blasphemer. Under the Byzantine emperor Justinian I (reigned 527-565) the death penalty was decreed for blasphemy. In the United States many states have legislation aimed at the offense. In Scotland until the 18th century it was punishable by death, and in England it is both a statutory and a common-law offense. It was recognized as the latter in the 17th century; the underlying idea apparently was that an attack on religion is necessarily an attack on the state. This idea probably has been the reason why penalties have been laid down for blasphemy in some secular legal codes.[Encyclopedia Britannica]
The anti blasphemy law was introduced inPakistan23 years ago, after prolonged debates, discussions among legal, religious experts, for years which was later approved by the elected parliament for with some changes introduced on the recommendation of judiciary. All aspects including judicial, religious, cultural, social and human aspects were kept in view by the those entrusted with the task. The Federal Shari’ah Court interpreted 295c, to include all the prophet of Allah [ie, Adam, Noah, Abraham, Moses, Jesus till Muhammad, peace be upon them all. Hence blasphemy against Moses or Jesus Christ bears same punishment as against Prophet Muhammad [pbuh]. No country in the world can boast of such a comprehensive blasphemy law.
3.Which religious group is most affected? Muslims 50%, Christians are only 12%.
4.Not a single person has been hanged through judicial process under this law, the conviction by lower courts were set aside by higher courts after judicial process, due to lack of evidence etc.
It is totally absurd to say that this law targets minorities, the statistics show 50% accused were Muslims, Christians being only 12%.
Misuse of any law can not be overruled, we know there are false cases registered for murder, robbery, corruption, rape etc, no one has ever demanded that these law should be dropped. Always efforts are made to improve upon the judicial and investigation process to nullify the misuse of any law.
The case of Dr. Afia Siddiqui is worth mentioning. She was kidnapped form Karachi in 2003 along with her three children, taken to Afghanistan, tried in USA courts: “She was alleged to be carrying inflammable materials and maps of potential targets in the United States “in jars” in her handbag. How big these ‘jars’ were, and how many kilogrammes of explosives were being transported in them was not mentioned to astounded readers.We were also informed that the next day, Dr Siddiqui had been shot in the abdomen “at least once” by an American soldier in self-defence after coming under fire from Dr Siddiqui who had come rushing out from behind a curtain where she was being held “unrestrained” for questioning, and picking up an M4 service rifle that had been left “at his feet” by an American warrant officer, had fired at him. And that but for the timely deflection of her shot by an Afghan interpreter she should have killed the American!!!! Dr Afia Siddiqui is accused of crimes ranging from buying blood diamonds to planning terrorist attacks to being the vilest person on earth. Yet, she was charged in court with what can only be called an impossible crime.
Finally thePakistani neuroscientist Dr.Aafia Siddiqui was sentenced to 86 years of imprisonment by a US federal court in Manhattan, after she was “convicted” of firing at US troops in Afghanistan while in their custody and other six charges brought against her. The world is silent on this human tragedy, but hue and cry to repeal the blasphemy law of Pakistan to save a woman convicted by local courts. What a dichotomy, hypocrisy and dual standards.
Many European countries have law against ‘Holocaust Denial’, is it not against freedom of speech? But it is right of every country to devise laws which they think are beneficial for their people.
Why then hue and cry against Anti Blasphemy law?
It must be understood well that Muslims [practicing or non practicing] love Prophet Muhammad [peace be upon him] and Qur’an more than their lives. While disciples of Prophet Jesus Christ [peace be upon him] deserted him at the time of crisis [Mt 26:56,Mr 14:50], the companions of Prophet Muhammad [peace be upon him] remained steadfast in critical times and even laid down their lives. Muslims believe and also love all Biblical prophets from Adam, Noah, Abraham, Ishmael, Isaac, Jacob, Moses till Jesus Christ [peace be upon them all], though there is slandering against them in Bible [Genesis;Chapter5-15, Genesis;19:30-38,Genesis;9:20-27, 2 Samuel;11:4, 6-25,1 Kings 1-11 and 1 Kings;11:4-7, 9-11].
The members of the household of Prophet [peace be upon him] and his pious Companions [Sahaba], especially Four Rightly Guided Caliphs [Rashdun] are next in respect and love. While Christian West has the tradition of slandering their prophets, it is unthinkable in Islam. On the pretext of freedom of expression it can not be allowed to happen come what may!
Every one must respect the law of the land and sentiments and sensitivities of local population. West has abandoned the Bible and law, they have allowed gay marriages, according to the constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, no law can be made repugnant to Islam [Qur’an and Sunnah]. This is our country every one must respect the law. Any law can be misused, but there are safeguards, in the tiers of judiciary, that’s the reason in 23 years not a single person was hanged. Asia Bibi, who was convicted in lower court shall get justice, the judicial process must be allowed to be followed.
Mr.Salman Tasir, the so called liberal governor ofPunjabtook law in to his own hands by rejecting the verdict by lower court, option of appeal in higher courts still exist. He went to police station, held a press conference, declared Asia Bibi as innocent calling it as black law, this was loose talk by a responsible official. Later he retracted and clarified that he was not against the blasphemy law but the execution methodology, which even Dt.Tahir ul Qadri also mentions. But the perceptions do not get changed quickly. President ofPakistanand Governors enjoy immunity, a common man can not hire expensive lawyers to sue Governor Salman Tasir [enjoying immunity], even clear verdict by Supreme court ofPakistanabout President Asif Zardari have not been implemented so far. If there is no respect of law, people take law in their on hands, as happened in this case. He violated the law, showing disrespect to court verdict like his beloved President creating ugly circumstances culminating to his death.If we don’t respect court decisions, people shall take law in their own hands, no one wants mob justice or killing on roads. Had the rulers established respect of law, equal for all citizens, some one could have gone to courts, where Mr.Salman Tasir would have been heard about allegations against him and set free if found innocent. [We have precedence of 2ndCaliph Omar Khattab (r.a) personally appearing in courts to face charges, but Rulers of Islamic Republic of Pakistan are the absolute monarchs enjoying immunity from law, with billions of dollars in Swiss banks and properties abroad.]
Moral:
People should respect the feelings and sensitivities of people of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, refrain from any activity which results in to violence.
Instead of criticising the law and demanding to leave the convicted blasphemer, should arrange good legal team to contest the case in courts. If she is innocent she will get her freedom. Higher courts exercise stringent criteria of witness and benefit of doubt is fully granted to the accused in Islamic law, the reason of no one ever punished under this law in 23 years.
Beware, the Muslims and People of Pakistan can not tolerate any non sense on the matters of their beloved Prophet [pbuh], Holy Qur'an, honourable members of household of Prophet [pbuh] which includes the mothers of Believers and the four pious rightly guided Caliphs under any pretext.
The Blasphemy law should be amended to include appropriate punishments for those who slander honourable members of household of Prophet [pbuh], the mothers of Believers and the four pious rightly guided Caliphs.
Those who falsely accuse some one for blasphemy, should be awarded strict punishment. The misuse of this law should also be considered as blasphemy.
Human heart has its own nervous system that is composed of approximately 40,000 neurons. These neurons are connected differently and more elaborately than elsewhere in the body and while they’re capable of detecting circulating chemicals sent from the brain and other organs, they operate independently in their own right. Having it’s own “mini-brain” is the reason why heart transplants work, given the fact that severed nerve connections do not reconnect in a different body. Furthermore, this elaborate nervous centre in the heart has more functions than simply regulating the electrical activities of the heart to keep it pumping. Continue reading >>>>
The word “democracy” — a Greek word in origin, is composed of Demo or the people and “Cracy” rule, or meaning rule of people, it started in city states of Greece. A lame tradition of Democracy was practiced in Rome where it got mixed up with Emperorship and had a zigzag course. Otherwise in Europe worst authoritarian rule remained entrenched till the French revolution or the 18th Century where the theory of Divine Rights of Kings was propounded. It developed after the French Revolution or after the 18th century primarily in England and also in France but naturally under the hallow of different cultural backgrounds Democracy as is now practiced evolved in England and the British parliament is called the mother of all parliaments. In England also it had a chequered development, passing through various evolutions.
Among Muslims we had our own concept of rule of the people. We were not without the concept of a rule of the people for the people and in early history of Islam, and this principle or idea was basic to Muslim political thought and jurisprudence. The Rule of the Caliphs was an illustration of what is the duty of the rulers towards the ruled. Hazrat Umar’s saying that even if someone in Iraq suffered on the Day of Judgment he will be answerable for the sufferings of that being illustrate this idea.
There is one difference in Western system and Islamic. The word Sharia meant rule of the law. In Islam there are two rights, of Allah and of the people – the later are so sacrosanct that it is said that God may forgive transgressions against His rights but even he will not forgive violations of rights of Human beings. So in Islam no rule autocratic or now the prevalent one, Democratic, can violate Rights and obligations of the Human beings. The words Human Rights now so much used by the West have been borrowed from Islam. In fact Human Rights has much limited scope in the West than in Islam.
This is the dividing line in Islamic concept of political rule. No law can deny any human being his rights. The exact word is “Huquq El Ibad” not Huquq el Muslimeen, that is its application is not limited to Muslims only. Theoretically in Western concept democracy can pass any law by majority. But as Bertrand Russell said even parliaments have limitations such as, he said, if all the parliaments of the world passed a law that from tomorrow the Sun should rise from the West it would not obey the command of all the parliaments of the world.
Under Pakistani concepts there is a distinct line dividing the nation and ethnicity. The Nation is one brotherhood and ethnic groups in it are merely identities, on the basis of the substance of the Quranic words that human beings are divided into tribes so that they can be recognized as such The idea of a nation in which tribes and ethnities merge is an old idea of Islamic polity as well. In modern context the world has such large political power groups that in it small units are impractical with huge entities like EU, America, China, India etc In any case taking ethnicity to absurd limits of creating bits of states is suicidal. This is a mirage of a creating a separate state. It would mean becoming a satellite of a bigger power with a myth of independence and surely poverty stricken deserts and infertile areas cannot ever get an independent state. It is cheating oneself and one’s followers. Identity of interests and commonality of mutual benefits among like minded and persons of common social system in broad terms ensures progress. Look at Pakistan What were those areas before Pakistan and now? Take any old records and compare their economic and social systems.
Any body who proposes it is subverting the basic Confederation is a big leap towards eventual disappearance of Pakistan, it is a prescription for slow death and eventually breaking the one-ness of the Pakistani people. It presumes that we are NOT one people, but separate nations, put together by, the direction Any way, no confederations exist in the world.. I quote the acknowledged authority on International Law, L Oppenheim in his book “ International Law in seventh edition at page 165, para 88, says: and I quote “ History has shown that the Confederated States represent an organization which in the long run gives very little satisfaction. It is for this reason that three Confederated States of modern times namely, the United States of America, the German and the Swiss Confederation turned into unions of Federal States. The last in existence, the major Republic of Central America, which comprised of the three full sovereign states of Hadoras, Nicaragua and San Salvador, and was established in 1895, came to an end in 1898.”
I will reminded here of the Quid’s warning “if you think yourself as Punjabis, Pathans, Balochis instead of Pakistanis first, Pakistan will disintegrate” I also recall what the famous lawyer A K Brohi at one time wrote in Magazine Impact “Minus Islam Pakistan will fall into the lap of Indian history.” I should like to add that Pakistan is an ideology tied to a land and a land tied to an ideology. One minus the other cannot exist. That is the landmass of Pakistan is not a nation minus that ideology on which it was created. Pakistan is not a geographic entity without its Muslim identity.
Dozens have been killed and tens of thousands more displaced as violence breaks out in India's northeastern Assam state.
"The central government pumps in money for economic progress and military but there is a total disregard to the history of the northeast… The root cause remains that there has been unchecked infiltration over the years and a change in the demographics of the region."
Indian security forces are patrolling the streets in the state after days of rioting, with thousands of soldiers sent to secure the region after clashes between Bodo tribesmen and Muslim settlers.
Authorities have ordered security forces to shoot on sight, but the state police chief denies that such an order was given.
The fighting has left at least 40 people dead. Residents say the troops have come too late.
Surrounded by China, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Bhutan, Assam is home to more than 200 ethnic and tribal groups. Muslim Bangladeshis make up most of the immigrants.
The latest wave of violence was sparked on Friday night when unidentified men killed four youths in Kokrajhar, a Bodo tribe-dominated district near the borders of Bangladesh and Bhutan.
"The problem between the Bodos and other communities over land and natural resources is a continuing issue that has been going on for the last 100 years… Unless the government of India finds a political solution to this problem, this will continue."
Violence has now spread to Chirang and Baska districts. More than 170,000 people have fled their homes for relief camps.
The Bodo community however told Al Jazeera's Prerna Suri that it is only protecting its people.
Anjali Daimary, of the Bodo Women's Justice Group, said: "It is for us to ask the question [of] how much we are safe in our own land. This is an example that the government of India, what we expect, what we deserve we are never given, we are never given the same status as other people."
Inside Story asks: Can a security solution work despite past failures? And what is required of the Indian government to settle this issue once and for all?
Joining the discussion with presenter Nick Clark are guests: Suhas Chakma, the director of the Asian Centre for Human Rights (ACHR); Namrata Goswami, a research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA); and Shisir Basumatari, a native Bodo, an artist and a writer.
"What policy makers in Delhi are worrying about is how to bring the violence down and ensure that it does not escalate…there are more districts [facing] armed violence and it could become a problem that could be completely unmanageable."
TIMELINE OF THE ASSAM CONFLICT:
The conflict is not new. It goes back a long way, starting off as an anti-immigration movement.
Since the late 1970s there have been protests against illegal migration from Bangladesh. The All Assam Students Union was one of the main campaign groups.
In 1983 more than 2,000 Muslim women, men and children were killed in Nellie district.
The Assam Accords in 1985 provided for the sealing of the border, and for setting up a national citizens database using DNA testing to determine citizenship.
The failure to implement provisions of the accord has been blamed for continued violence.
In 1994 a relief camp for migrants was attacked in Barpeta district, killing 100 people. Thousands more have since been made homeless.
Badruddin Ajmal is Assam’s tallest Muslim leader. S.N.M. Abdi talks to the Dhubri MP and president of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the state’s principal opposition party, about casualties and the efficacy of relief operations.
The official death toll is 56. What is your figure?
There are hundreds of corpses rotting in remote areas where well-planned cleansing drives were executed with the blessings of the administration. A proper headcount of the dead or missing will take a very long time.
Any idea of the Bodo/Muslim break-up of casualties?
Ninety per cent of those killed are Muslims. If I even attempt an estimate of the factual toll, I’ll be accused of making provocative statements and obstructing the return of normalcy. So I don’t want to go public with the information collected by my party. But I’ll open my mouth after the government comes up with its final death toll.
Your party has accused the state of turning a blind eye to the massacre of Muslims. It’s a very serious charge.
Tarun Gogoi has betrayed those he is constitutionally bound to protect. He is not only the CM but also the home minister. So he has no excuses. It’s now as clear as daylight that the CM had advance information of preparations to kill Muslims. But he did not act. Now he is transferring DCs, SPs, SDOs, SDPOs and officers-in-charge. FIRs should be immediately filed against the guilty officials and they must be tried. If the CM has a conscience, he should resign. He’s solely responsible.
Why demand a CBI inquiry?
Because Muslims have no faith in the state government. The PM is an MP from Assam. He must order an impartial, independent investigation instead of being misguided and misinformed by the CM who has much to hide.
Are you satisfied with the pace of relief and rehabilitation measures?
The whole exercise is a farce. Even the victims of the 1993 violence are yet to be rehabilitated. India has no idea of what’s going on in Assam.
There are reports that infiltrating Bangladeshis instigated the current flare-up.
These are cock-and-bull stories spun by the BJP. R.K. Singh, the union home secretary, shot down these conspiracy theories no sooner than they were aired. Anyone propagating that Bangladeshis infiltrated India and ignited trouble is insulting our armed forces guarding the country’s international border. These are patently anti-national theories to shield the guilty; they have nothing to do with reality.
India's north-eastern state of Assam is a veritable tinder-box. So why does it periodically erupt into violence and blood-letting?
The latest bout has left about 40 dead and displaced tens of thousands. The state remains tense as the army has been issued with "shoot on sight" orders.
At the heart of Assam's troubles is a debate over so-called "infiltration" by outsiders, which has led to ethnic tension between the state's indigenous population and Bengali migrants.
Changing demography, loss of land and livelihood and intensified competition for political power has added a deadly potency to the issue of who has a right to Assam.
'Infiltration' anger
The migrants say they are mostly descended from East Bengali Muslims brought to Assam by the British to boost agricultural output by taming the "Chars" (river islands) - and that they are as Indian as the ethnic Assamese or the tribespeople in the state.
But the others do not accept that argument and groups representing them say more and more poor peasants from Bangladesh are flooding Assam, taking advantage of a porous riverine border.
The worst violence prompted by such tensions erupted during a controversial election in February 1983 - nearly 3,000 people were left dead in that episode.
The indigenous Assamese were joined by many local tribal groups in opposing the state assembly elections because they alleged that the electoral rolls were full of "infiltrators" - the expression locally used to describe illegal migrants from neighbouring Bangladesh.
It came after four years of a determined campaign to drive out the migrants, hundreds of whom were killed in the village of Nellie in central Assam that February.
After the 1983 elections, India's federal government tried to placate local sentiments by signing an accord with the All Assam Students Union (AASU) in 1985 which was leading the campaign against the migrants.
The accord promised to disenfranchise migrants who came after 1966 for a period of 10 years, after which they would be included in electoral rolls.
The hardline Assamese described the 1985 accord as a "betrayal" and decided to wage an armed campaign against India.
Twenty years later, a faction of the separatist United Liberation Front of Assam (Ulfa) is negotiating with Delhi, asking for more concrete protection for indigenous populations against what they describe as "relentless illegal migration from across the border".
Groups representing Bodo, Rabha, Tiwa and other tribespeople support the Ulfa's call for stopping illegal migration and protecting the lands and livelihoods of the local populations.
Delhi has reportedly promised a replay of the 1985 Assam accord - disenfranchisement of the migrants who came between 1966 and 1971 for a period of 10 years, but not much more.
The latest clashes have affected four districts of western Assam, where the migrants - or their descendants from East Bengal (now Bangladesh) - are pitted against tribespeople such as the Bodos, Rabhas and Garos.
Bodo-Muslim tension
In Kokrajhar, the Bodo heartland, Muslim migrants are regularly attacked by Bodo separatist rebels and this periodically erupts into full-scale riots.
More than 100 migrants were killed in one such raid at Bansbari, a makeshift camp for displaced Muslims in 1993.
The Bodos now have an autonomous territorial council which one of their parties, the Bodoland People's Front (BPF), controls. But many feel migrants have taken over much of the land they traditionally occupied.
The migrants and their descendants have also become more assertive with the formation of the Assam United Democratic Front which seeks to protect the rights of minorities and their periodic ousting from settlements through violence.
The Front, led by a charismatic religious leader Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, has increased its tally in the state legislature over the last two state elections.
In 2011, it emerged as the main opposition to Assam's ruling Congress party, winning three times the number of seats won by regional Assamese parties and the Hindu nationalist BJP.
Four years ago, different local tribes people and ethnic Assamese were involved in bitter rioting in the district of Darrang, in which the army had to be called out to stop the blood-letting.
Trouble in Assam is not simply a regional issue - the violence has also affected railway traffic between India's mainland and its north-eastern states because violence-torn Kokrajhar district sits in the "chicken neck", the strategically vital corridor that connects the north-east to the rest of the country.
Subir Bhaumik is an independent journalist and writer based in Calcutta
Muslims are being killed in Burma, India. Kashmir, Palestine, Chechenia, Afghanistan, FATA Pakistan by US Drones and elsewhere. World is silent.... when they rise up to defend themselves will be called terrorists ....
1 In four of the six largely Christian nations included in the study, most say they have a positive opinion of Muslims. The exceptions are Germany (45% favorable) and Spain (37%), although views toward Muslims have improved in both countries since 2006. Also, solid majorities in Western countries have a favorable opinion of Jews. …Continue reading
Executive Summary
The world’s Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35% in the next 20 years, rising from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030, according to new population projections by the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life.
Globally, the Muslim population is forecast to grow at about twice the rate of the non-Muslim population over the next two decades – an average annual growth rate of 1.5% for Muslims, compared with 0.7% for non-Muslims. If current trends continue, Muslims will make up 26.4% of the world’s total projected population of 8.3 billion in 2030, up from 23.4% of the estimated 2010 world population of 6.9 billion.
While the global Muslim population is expected to grow at a faster rate than the non-Muslim population, the Muslim population nevertheless is expected to grow at a slower pace in the next two decades than it did in the previous two decades. From 1990 to 2010, the global Muslim population increased at an average annual rate of 2.2%, compared with the projected rate of 1.5% for the period from 2010 to 2030.
These are among the key findings of a comprehensive report on the size, distribution and growth of the global Muslim population. The report by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life seeks to provide up-to-date estimates of the number of Muslims around the world in 2010 and to project the growth of the Muslim population from 2010 to 2030. The projections are based both on past demographic trends and on assumptions about how these trends will play out in future years. Making these projections inevitably entails a host of uncertainties, including political ones. Changes in the political climate in the United States or European nations, for example, could dramatically affect the patterns of Muslim migration.
If current trends continue, however, 79 countries will have a million or more Muslim inhabitants in 2030, up from 72 countries today.1 A majority of the world’s Muslims (about 60%) will continue to live in the Asia-Pacific region, while about 20% will live in the Middle East and North Africa, as is the case today. But Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia as the country with the single largest Muslim population. The portion of the world’s Muslims living in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise; in 20 years, for example, more Muslims are likely to live in Nigeria than in Egypt. Muslims will remain relatively small minorities in Europe and the Americas, but they are expected to constitute a growing share of the total population in these regions.
In the United States, for example, the population projections show the number of Muslims more than doubling over the next two decades, rising from 2.6 million in 2010 to 6.2 million in 2030, in large part because of immigration and higher-than-average fertility among Muslims. The Muslim share of the U.S. population (adults and children) is projected to grow from 0.8% in 2010 to 1.7% in 2030, making Muslims roughly as numerous as Jews or Episcopalians are in the United States today. Although several European countries will have substantially higher percentages of Muslims, the United States is projected to have a larger number of Muslims by 2030 than any European countries other than Russia and France. (See the Americas section for more details.)
In Europe as a whole, the Muslim share of the population is expected to grow by nearly one-third over the next 20 years, rising from 6% of the region’s inhabitants in 2010 to 8% in 2030. In absolute numbers, Europe’s Muslim population is projected to grow from 44.1 million in 2010 to 58.2 million in 2030. The greatest increases – driven primarily by continued migration – are likely to occur in Western and Northern Europe, where Muslims will be approaching double-digit percentages of the population in several countries. In the United Kingdom, for example, Muslims are expected to comprise 8.2% of the population in 2030, up from an estimated 4.6% today. In Austria, Muslims are projected to reach 9.3% of the population in 2030, up from 5.7% today; in Sweden, 9.9% (up from 4.9% today); in Belgium, 10.2% (up from 6% today); and in France, 10.3% (up from 7.5% today). (See the Europe section.)
Several factors account for the faster projected growth among Muslims than non-Muslims worldwide. Generally, Muslim populations tend to have higher fertility rates (more children per woman) than non-Muslim populations. In addition, a larger share of the Muslim population is in, or soon will enter, the prime reproductive years (ages 15-29). Also, improved health and economic conditions in Muslim-majority countries have led to greater-than-average declines in infant and child mortality rates, and life expectancy is rising even faster in Muslim-majority countries than in other less-developed countries. (See the section on Main Factors Driving Population Growth for more details. For a list of Muslim-majority countries and definitions for the terms less- and more-developed, see the section on Muslim- Majority Countries.)
Growing, But at a Slower Rate
The growth of the global Muslim population, however, should not obscure another important demographic trend: the rate of growth among Muslims has been slowing in recent decades and is likely to continue to decline over the next 20 years, as the graph below shows. From 1990 to 2000, the Muslim population grew at an average annual rate of 2.3%. The growth rate dipped to 2.1% from 2000 to 2010, and it is projected to drop to 1.7% from 2010 to 2020 and 1.4% from 2020 to 2030 (or 1.5% annually over the 20-year period from 2010 to 2030, as previously noted).
The declining growth rate is due primarily to falling fertility rates in many Muslim-majority countries, including such populous nations as Indonesia and Bangladesh. Fertility is dropping as more women in these countries obtain a secondary education, living standards rise and people move from rural areas to cities and towns. (See the Related Factors section for more details.)
The slowdown in Muslim population growth is most pronounced in the Asia- Pacific region, the Middle East-North Africa and Europe, and less sharp in sub-Saharan Africa. The only region where Muslim population growth is accelerating through 2020 is the Americas, largely because of immigration. (For details, see the charts on population growth in the sections of this report onAsia-Pacific, Middle-East-North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and the Americas.)
Falling birth rates eventually will lead to significant shifts in the age structure of Muslim populations. While the worldwide Muslim population today is relatively young, the so-called Muslim “youth bulge” – the high percentage of Muslims in their teens and 20s – peaked around the year 2000 and is now declining. (See the Age Structure section for more details.)
In 1990, more than two-thirds of the total population of Muslim-majority countries was under age 30. Today, people under 30 make up about 60% of the population of these countries, and by 2030 they are projected to fall to about 50%.
At the same time, many Muslim-majority countries will have aging populations; between 2010 and 2030, the share of people age 30 and older in these countries is expected to rise from 40% to 50%, and the share of people age 60 and older is expected nearly to double, from 7% to 12%.
Muslim-majority countries, however, are not the only ones with aging populations. As birth rates drop and people live longer all around the globe, the population of the entire world is aging. As a result, the global Muslim population will remain comparatively youthful for decades to come. The median age in Muslim-majority countries, for example, rose from 19 in 1990 to 24 in 2010 and is expected to climb to 30 by 2030. But it will still be lower than the median age in North America, Europe and other more-developed regions, which rose from 34 to 40 between 1990 and 2010 and is projected to be 44 in 2030. By that year, nearly three-in-ten of the world’s youth and young adults – 29.1% of people ages 15-29 – are projected to be Muslims, up from 25.8% in 2010 and 20.0% in 1990.
Other key findings of the study include:
Worldwide
Sunni Muslims will continue to make up an overwhelming majority of Muslims in 2030 (87- 90%). The portion of the world’s Muslims who are Shia may decline slightly, largely because of relatively low fertility in Iran, where more than a third of the world’s Shia Muslims live.
As of 2010, about three-quarters of the world’s Muslims (74.1%) live in the 49 countries in which Muslims make up a majority of the population. More than a fifth of all Muslims (23.3%) live in non-Muslim-majority countries in the developing world. About 3% of the world’s Muslims live in more-developed regions, such as Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan.
Fertility rates in Muslim-majority countries are closely related to women’s education levels. In the eight Muslim-majority countries where girls generally receive the fewest years of schooling, the average fertility rate (5.0 children per woman) is more than double the average rate (2.3 children per woman) in the nine Muslim-majority countries where girls generally receive the most years of schooling. One exception is the Palestinian territories, where the average fertility rate (4.5 children per woman) is relatively high even though a girl born there today can expect to receive 14 years of formal education.
Fewer than half (47.8%) of married women ages 15-49 in Muslim-majority countries use some form of birth control. By comparison, in non-Muslim-majority, less-developed countries nearly two-thirds (63.3%) of all married women in that age group use some form of birth control.
Asia-Pacific
Nearly three-in-ten people living in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 (27.3%) will be Muslim, up from about a quarter in 2010 (24.8%) and roughly a fifth in 1990 (21.6%).
Muslims make up only about 2% of the population in China, but because the country is so populous, its Muslim population is expected to be the 19th largest in the world in 2030.
Middle East-North Africa
The Middle East-North Africa will continue to have the highest percentage of Muslim-majority countries. Of the 20 countries and territories in this region, all but Israel are projected to be at least 50% Muslim in 2030, and 17 are expected to have a population that is more than 75% Muslim in 2030, with Israel, Lebanon and Sudan (as currently demarcated) being the only exceptions.
Nearly a quarter (23.2%) of Israel’s population is expected to be Muslim in 2030, up from 17.7% in 2010 and 14.1% in 1990. During the past 20 years, the Muslim population in Israel has more than doubled, growing from 0.6 million in 1990 to 1.3 million in 2010. The Muslim population in Israel (including Jerusalem but not the West Bank and Gaza) is expected to reach 2.1 million by 2030.
Egypt, Algeria and Morocco currently have the largest Muslim populations in the Middle East-North Africa. By 2030, however, Iraq is expected to have the second-largest Muslim population in the region – exceeded only by Egypt – largely because Iraq has a higher fertility rate than Algeria or Morocco.
Sub-Saharan Africa
The Muslim population in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by nearly 60% in the next 20 years, from 242.5 million in 2010 to 385.9 million in 2030. Because the region’s non- Muslim population also is growing at a rapid pace, Muslims are expected to make up only a slightly larger share of the region’s population in 2030 (31.0%) than they do in 2010 (29.6%).
Various surveys give differing figures for the size of religious groups in Nigeria, which appears to have roughly equal numbers of Muslims and Christians in 2010. By 2030, Nigeria is expected to have a slight Muslim majority (51.5%).
Europe
In 2030, Muslims are projected to make up more than 10% of the total population in 10 European countries: Kosovo (93.5%), Albania (83.2%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (42.7%), Republic of Macedonia (40.3%), Montenegro (21.5%), Bulgaria (15.7%), Russia (14.4%), Georgia (11.5%), France (10.3%) and Belgium (10.2%).
Russia will continue to have the largest Muslim population (in absolute numbers) in Europe in 2030. Its Muslim population is expected to rise from 16.4 million in 2010 to 18.6 million in 2030. The growth rate for the Muslim population in Russia is projected to be 0.6% annually over the next two decades. By contrast, Russia’s non-Muslim population is expected to shrink by an average of 0.6% annually over the same period.
France had an expected net influx of 66,000 Muslim immigrants in 2010, primarily from North Africa. Muslims comprised an estimated two-thirds (68.5%) of all new immigrants to France in the past year. Spain was expected to see a net gain of 70,000 Muslim immigrants in 2010, but they account for a much smaller portion of all new immigrants to Spain (13.1%). The U.K.’s net inflow of Muslim immigrants in the past year (nearly 64,000) was forecast to be nearly as large as France’s. More than a quarter (28.1%) of all new immigrants to the U.K. in 2010 are estimated to be Muslim.
The Americas
The number of Muslims in Canada is expected to nearly triple in the next 20 years, from about 940,000 in 2010 to nearly 2.7 million in 2030. Muslims are expected to make up 6.6% of Canada’s total population in 2030, up from 2.8% today. Argentina is expected to have the third-largest Muslim population in the Americas, after the U.S. and Canada. Argentina, with about 1 million Muslims in 2010, is now in second place, behind the U.S.
Children under age 15 make up a relatively small portion of the U.S. Muslim population today. Only 13.1% of Muslims are in the 0-14 age group. This reflects the fact that a large proportion of Muslims in the U.S. are newer immigrants who arrived as adults. But by 2030, many of these immigrants are expected to start families. If current trends continue, the number of U.S. Muslims under age 15 will more than triple, from fewer than 500,000 in 2010 to 1.8 million in2030. The number of Muslim children ages 0-4 living in the U.S. is expected to increase from fewer than 200,000 in 2010 to more than 650,000 in 2030.
About two-thirds of the Muslims in the U.S. today (64.5%) are first-generation immigrants (foreign-born), while slightly more than a third (35.5%) were born in the U.S. By 2030, however, more than four-in-ten of the Muslims in the U.S. (44.9%) are expected to be native-born.
The top countries of origin for Muslim immigrants to the U.S. in 2009 were Pakistan and Bangladesh. They are expected to remain the top countries of origin for Muslim immigrants to the U.S. in 2030.
About the Report
This report makes demographic projections. Projections are not the same as predictions. Rather, they are estimates built on current population data and assumptions about demographic trends; they are what will happen if the current data are accurate and the trends play out as expected. But many things – immigration laws, economic conditions, natural disasters, armed conflicts, scientific discoveries, social movements and political upheavals, to name just a few – can shift demographic trends in unforeseen ways, which is why this report adheres to a modest time frame, looking just 20 years down the road. Even so, there is no guarantee that Muslim populations will grow at precisely the rates anticipated in this report and not be affected by unforeseen events, such as political decisions on immigration quotas or national campaigns to encourage larger or smaller families.
The projections presented in this report are the medium figures in a range of three scenarios – high, medium and low – generated from models commonly used by demographers around the world to forecast changes in population size and composition. The models follow what is known as the cohort-component method, which starts with a baseline population (in this case, the current number of Muslims in each country) divided into groups, or cohorts, by age and sex. Each cohort is projected into the future by adding likely gains – new births and immigrants – and subtracting likely losses – deaths and emigrants. These calculations were made by the Pew Forum’s demographers, who collaborated with researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria on the projections for the United States and European countries. (For more details, see Appendix A: Methodology.)
The current population data that underpin this report were culled from the best sources available on Muslims in each of the 232 countries and territories for which the U.N. Population Division provides general population estimates. Many of these baseline statistics were published in the Pew Forum’s 2009 report, Mapping the Global Muslim Population, which acquired and analyzed about 1,500 sources of data – including census reports, large-scale demographic studies and general population surveys – to estimate the number of Muslims in every country and territory. (For a list of sources, see Appendix B: Data Sources by Country.) All of those estimates have been updated for 2010, and some have been substantially revised. (To find the current estimate and projections for a particular region or country, seeMuslim Population by Country, 1990-2030.) Since many countries are conducting national censuses in 2010-11, more data is likely to emerge over the next few years, but a cut-off must be made at some point; this report is based on information available as of mid-2010. To the extent possible, the report provides data for decennial years – 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030. In some cases, however, the time periods vary because data is available only for certain years or in five-year increments (e.g., 2010-15 or 2030-35).
The definition of Muslim in this report is very broad. The goal is to count all groups and individuals whoself-identify as Muslims. This includes Muslims who may be secular or nonobservant. No attempt is made in this report to measure how religious Muslims are or to forecast levels of religiosity (or secularism) in the decades ahead.2
The main factors, or inputs, in the population projections are:
The age structure of the population (the number of people in various age groups)
Related factors – which are not direct inputs into the projections but which underlie vital assumptions about the way Muslim fertility rates are changing and Muslim populations are shifting – include:
To fully understand the projections, one must understand these factors, which the next section of the report will discuss in more detail.
Readers can also explore an online, interactive feature that allows them to select a region or one of the 232 countries and territories – as well as a decade from 1990-2030 – and see the size of the Muslim population in that place and time.
Footnotes
1 The seven countries projected to rise above 1 million Muslims by 2030 are: Belgium, Canada, Congo, Djibouti, Guinea Bissau,Netherlands and Togo. (return to text)
.jpg "md2-asia(2)")
.jpg "md2-europe(2)")
.jpg "md2-amer(2)")