The attack on Charlie Hebdo: the problem is the Middle East, not Islam

The deadly attack in Paris by French Islamists with ties to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) provokes several basic responses.

One major response is a broad affirmation that the actions of the violent few in no way represent Islam as a global religion of over 1 billion adherents.

Indeed, the vast majority of Muslims are no less broadly humane and no more fanatic than anyone else, as was clear in Paris with the heroic actions of a Muslim employee of the besieged Kosher grocery store, or the death of a French Muslim police officer defending Charlie Hebdo.

Underscoring that this is the case might be less necessary if Islamophobia were not a genuine global issue.

But, however true, the response that Islam is not about violence is unlikely to satisfy.

People are asking why – at least at this moment in global history – the most frequent and dramatic violence explicitly undertaken in the name of religion seems to occur in Middle East and North Africa countries and/or in the name of a particular branch of Islam.

Even for a scholar like myself – who has studied the diversity of orientations in Islam – and has many Muslim friends, the question still nags: why are a tiny minority of Muslims with connections to the Middle East and North Africa committing violent attacks against religious and other pluralism?

The answer may actually be the MENA geographic piece of the equation, rather than the Muslim one.

What is special about the Middle East and North Africa?

Put it this way: if Islamist violence linked to the Middle East and North Africa is the issue, then looking at the regional, rather than religious piece of the puzzle may be more fruitful, particularly in light of the diversity of Islam worldwide.

The question of why the MENA has bred so much recent violence might have many answers, but there is one that I want to highlight here.

Colonialism in the region and the authoritarian governments that followed the withdrawal of the British, French and Ottoman empires, have specifically prioritized the violent suppression of dissent. It is this violent clampdown that has influenced many of today’s Islamist opposition movements.

Several points from “Middle Eastern Politics 101” are worth keeping in mind,

First, there is the idealization of Islamic civilization before colonialism and nostalgia for its intellectual and cultural pre-eminence – think the oft-cited example of the Arab-invented navigational tool, the astrolabe. In contrast, relations with Europe were never easy – they were, in fact, violent from the beginning. And this only got worse with the arrival of colonial rule.

The relative aimlessness of today’s states in the Middle East and North Africa is often blamed on the legacy of such colonial practices as theEuropean powers' drawing arbitrary borders and practicing “divide and rule” to help their control over the region’s diverse ethnic and religious groups. All of this helps explain why political cohesion in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen has not survived the fall of coercive dictators.

Second, although Middle Eastern authoritarianism can not be completely blamed on the colonial legacy, it’s convenient for Middle Easterners to say the West’s past and present actions have contributed to the relative lack of democracy in the MENA. Citizens’ political and economic aspirations are repressed across the region. This widespread frustration, in turn, had much to do with the 2011 Arab uprisings – as well as with the backlash that followed in Egypt and elsewhere.

Third, this repression has been particularly acute in the arena of free expression, where governments – and the opposition movements they have spawned – have often justified harsh treatment of political dissenters and journalists in the name of enhancing social solidarity.

What all of this means in a nutshell is that the Middle East and North Africa has been a region with an unusual level of popular resentment towards governments, and with many examples of force being used against any open opposition to political orthodoxy.

Before and after the Arab spring

Before 2011 the usual pattern was to force Islamist political groups underground. This often resulted in these groups being a mirror image of the states that had outlawed them.

With the broad disillusionment after the uprisings of 2011, states like Egypt have gone back to their pattern of violently repressing groups – mostly Islamist – who, it is claimed, undermine social solidarity.

At the same time, and somewhat ironically, Egypt, and several other MENA states, have been in the forefront of clamping down on journalistswhom they deem dangerous to national values or cohesiveness. Journalistic self-censorship, and media censorship more generally, have been a well-known aspect of MENA politics for decades.

Given this regional context, violent actors like the Islamists in France are not as much representative of Islam, as they are of a specific political context with far too many concrete and well known examples of using of violence to silence dissent.

An alternative perspective

If violence can breed violence, then the legacy of both Western colonialism and post-colonial repressive authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa should be confronted – and more clearly connected to the broader context of the tragedy of Paris.

Emphasizing the influence of repressive political structures in the modern Middle East and North Africa is an approach that does not get to the social psychological issues of the attackers or the particular context of contemporary French culture.

However, acknowledging that authoritarian repression of dissent in the Middle East and North Africa replicates itself elsewhere, and that it fosters networks that can abet terrorist attacks globally, offers an alternative view on last week’s shooting of the journalists at Charlie Hebdo. It is a different argument to the usual one that the problem lies in Islam or with Muslims – an argument that is only likely to further heighten conflict.

The key point is that excessive repression by a politically-dominant group (governmental or non-governmental) is central to breeding violence, in the Middle East and elsewhere.

• theconversation.com

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Ajit Doval: The Indian who wants to ‘destroy’ Pakistan?

After reading the title you must wonder, so what? There are plenty of Indians who want to ‘destroy’ Pakistan - there always were and there always will be – that is the sad reality. But this one, my friends, is a little different. He has the knowhow, the expertise, and most importantly, now he has the resources and power to inflict damage upon not only the people of Pakistan, but also countless, defenseless Indian minorities. And he has done it before. So all peace-loving people from Khyber to Kerala – sit up and read carefully.

Ajit Kumar Doval was born into an Indian Army family in Uttarakhand in 1945. After graduating in 1967 with a degree in economics from Agra University, he joined the Indian Police Service (IPS). His early years were spent fighting against the Mizo National Front (MNF) insurgency in Assam where he earned a reputation for bribing and turning insurgent operatives into counter-insurgents.During this time he also operated within Chinese sovereign territory, staging terrorist attacks against the Chinese government, leading to civilian deathsin the process. A colleague of his from that time, Haba Ram, (TOI) detailed thathis main motivation was not strictly professional but stemmed from a deep hatred of anyone and anything non-Hindu which he perceived as a threat to his notion of Hinduism - a misguided notion of the religion which is advocated today by ultra-right-wing Hindu fascist organizations such as the RashtriyaSwayamsevakSangh(RSS) and to which the new PM of India, NarendraModi also ascribes to. (However, there is no evidence that he was actually a member of any such organizationat that time.)

After the Mizo Insurgency ended in 1986, Doval was transferred to Indian Punjab which was in the midst of a freedom struggle by the persecuted Sikh minority, called the Khalistan movement. In 1989, during Indira Gandhi’s Operation Black Thunder, security forces were sent to storm the Golden Temple at Amritsar, the holiest site for the Sikh religion. Several weeks before the storming, Doval, posing as a friendly agent, entered the holy site (source needed)and reported back the positions of the defenders. Even though he was aware of the large presence of civilians inside he did nothing to avoid civilian casualties – leading to the Indian Army massacring hundreds of women and children in an unprecedented and unprovoked catastrophe. For his ‘heroism’ he was promoted and was soon organizing the rigging of the 1992 Punjab State Elections in favour of parties who were controlled by the ruling Hindu majority.

Doval was then sent to Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) in the early 90’s, where there was another freedom struggle underway. He once again used his expertise in blackmail, bribery and intimidation to convert a small group of insurgents into counter-insurgents. This though proved ineffectual; however it did sow confusion amongst other groups of freedom fighters, leading them to go further underground for a time.

For his efforts, in 2000, he was appointed Director of the Intelligence Bureau (IB) – the 2nd most powerful Indian spy agency after RAW. This allowed him to go on the offensive. From 2001 to 2005 he planned terrorist acts in Pakistan, Afghanistan and China. Specifically, he was instrumental in increasing the amount of funds and weapons going to Indian trained terrorists in Balochistan who then killed countless Pakistani civilians in indiscriminate bombings. Such attacks also occurred in Lahore and Karachi and were part of Doval’s and the Indian Intelligence communities’ strategy of violently destabilizing Pakistan from within. In China, he provided funding to Tibetan secessionists. Doval had to retire in 2005, because the right wing government that had appointed him lost power.

But now he’s back. India’s new right wing PM, Modi, appointed him National Security Advisor (NSA) this June – a position that grants him tremendous influence over Indian foreign overt and covert policy and a plethora of resources to wage his crusade of madness. State controlled media in India is terming it as the ‘return of the superspy’and ‘the spy who came in from the cold,’ - But Doval has never been far from influential intelligence circles in Delhi. Since his retirement he has been advising RAW chiefs and also publishing papers on intelligence. In 2009 he was the founding member of the Vivekananda International Foundation, a group of right-wing Hindu nationalist ‘commentators’ with close ties to the RSS and RAW, who are masquerading as a think-tank. In one of his many anti-Pakistan papers titled‘Internal Security — Need for Course Correction’, he wrote that ‘the Indian security establishment has become lax in its attitude towards Pakistan…Indian foreign policy must re-gear itself to go on the offensive against its enemy Pakistan by funding, arming, training and directing non-state actors to wage a campaign of chaos within Pakistan by exacerbating existing sectarian and ethnic differences through violence…India will never be secure until Pakistan is destroyed, China is silenced, and Muslim and Sikh anti-state groups in India are forever extinguished.’

With such blatantly fascist and racist views Ajit Kumar Doval now joins a growing number of anti-Pakistancampaigners in the new BJP government. The world must sit up and take notice. If Doval and his goons have their way, they will unleash a torrent of suffering upon the innocent people of the subcontinent - Muslim, Sikh and Hindu alike. The only thing standing against the barbaric machinations of such men will be the actions of good men. That is why, most importantly, Pakistan’s government and its security establishment must be on their guard. The world cannot afford to ignore another Nazi party.
Ajit Doval: The Indian who wants to ‘destroy’ Pakistn. By Hassan Qureshi
Source PKKH.tv

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What will the big stories be in 2015?

With the new year upon us, several of the BBC's experts have been asked to give their predictions on which stories to follow in 2015.

Security, refugees and the battle against Islamic groups

Lyse Doucet, chief international correspondent

2015 will be another year of global consequence in the Middle East and just beyond.

The year ended with major security challenges in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. This situation will be further aggravated in 2015. Better relations between Pakistan, India and Afghanistan will be essential but difficult.

2015 will be a critical year in the battle against Islamist groups on many fronts.

The US will strive to limit its military engagement but won't be able to pull away despite President Obama's best laid plans to do so.

In Iraq, the US will strive to strengthen Iraqi forces to take back iconic cities seized by the Islamic State group. Iraq will remain fragmented, as will Syria, where a deadly stalemate will continue.

The UN predicts continued hardship for refugees, such as this 4-year-old Afghan girl in Islamabad, in 2015
Financial pressures stemming from a sustained slump in oil prices will not cause key players to abandon their allies but will increase pressure to find a way out.

Oil producers Russia and Iran - President Bashar al-Assad's key backers - will weigh new political approaches including the UN plan for a local "freeze" in Aleppo. The West, Arab states and Turkey will continue to back different forces, impeding any united opposition front. Assad's own forces are stretched, and strained.

2015 is a pivotal year on other fronts. There are reasons to believe a deal will be reached on Iran's nuclear programme. US Secretary of State John Kerry will try to revive Israeli-Palestinian talks after Israel's elections but there are too many tensions in the mix to make real progress possible.

This will be another year of global hand wringing over the inability of world powers to resolve many major crises. And, all the while, the armies of the desperate will continue to swell with ever more people forced to become refugees or migrants risking their lives at sea.

Bridget Kendall, diplomatic correspondent

Western diplomats face two major challenges as 2015 dawns: how to contain contagion from Syria's collapse; and how to tackle a resurgent Russia.

On the first, in theory a nuclear deal with Iran could unveil a new paradigm in the Middle East, transforming Tehran from pariah into partner.

Many hope a long-term deal with Iran over its nuclear programme can be reached in 2015
The West and Iran already share a common enemy - the IS jihadists currently dismembering Syria and Iraq. Both sides desire a deal, the West to avoid a nuclear-armed Iran, President Rouhani to get sanctions lifted.

But the window for compromise is closing: sceptical Republicans now controlling Capitol Hill encumber President Obama and Tehran conservatives would rather block than back a deal ahead of parliamentary elections.

Then there is what to do about Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, Iran's key ally, but unacceptable as part of any compromise in many Western capitals.

So the most likely outcome is continued mayhem, contained somewhat by air strikes, with the hydra-headed problem left for the next American president, while Iran seeks other ways to breach the stranglehold of sanctions.

Likewise a deal with Russia over Ukraine may appear preferable to an escalating conflict. And you might think Russia's economic worries would make Mr Putin more pliant.

The Ukraine crisis has put Russia's ties with the West are at their lowest ebb since the Cold War
But loss of trust on all sides makes a breakthrough unlikely. Kiev and Western powers now view Moscow with the utmost suspicion. And President Putin welcomes reduced contacts with the West as an opportunity for Russia to become more self-reliant.

A de facto border already divides Ukraine proper from the self-styled eastern enclaves next to Russia. Expect a broader barrier to take shape over 2015, reminiscent of the Iron Curtain, but virtual not actual.

The West will blame Russia. And Mr Putin will blame the West, while encouraging Russians to turn inwards, away from the malign influence of foreigners.

The pressures of globalisation will mean fragmentation of our more integrated world.

The US will boom, Europe will stagnate or worsen, and China is the wild card. Inequality will rise, and no-one will know what to do about it. That will feed the feeling that politics doesn't work.

The debate about Western intervention will heat up
The conflicts of 2014 will deepen and probably worsen and new ones will erupt - both that, and the US election around the corner in 2016 will intensify the debate about Western intervention.

The next US president will have to work out if there is a middle way between Bush's adventurism and Obama quietism. Other countries may start to reflect that, prompting a better, less dangerous world.

Europe will have to decide if it wants to stick at its current borders - if Ukraine and Turkey will never join, the EU will have changed course. Like many other political projects the EU may start to deflate if is stops expanding.

The internet will become a philosophical battleground as it increasingly freaks out the gerontocracy, unnerved by a lack of control, faced by a younger generation who largely think the good of the medium outweighs the bad of any messages it may contain.

China: Political purge, high growth and internet governance

Carrie Gracie, China editor

China's rulers have much to grapple with
2015 will be dominated by the ongoing anti-corruption campaign, a drive to make the Communist Party fit for purpose, clearing President Xi's remaining political enemies from the field and scaring the bureaucratic machine out of its habits of self-serving greed and cynicism.

The "new normal" economics slogan is about weaning China off a high growth model after more then 30 years. Reform is more urgent than ever, but putting it off is making it ever harder.

Hong Kong's Legislative Council will or won't approve rules on electing the territory's next leader. Whichever way, the divisions exposed by the Occupy movement will be hard to bridge.

Clean air, soil and water go on being big challenges for the long term. Expect some progress on emissions pledges made during the Xi-Obama summit in November 2014, especially as we get closer to the big Paris conference in autumn 2015.

Prince William's visit at the beginning of March will be a moment to push public education on protecting elephants, rhino and species at home. Conservation is one of the few areas where NGOs are permitted to operate in China.

With China's tech market impossible to ignore, expect to see Mark Zuckerberg back in Beijing, working his Mandarin and making compromises for Facebook access. Watch China use its new leverage with the Californian tech companies to push harder for a stake in global internet governance.

Lots happening in terms of defence, for example China's nuclear armed submarines will become operational and its big defence companies will go looking for global arms sales.

Another year of energetic diplomacy by President Xi and Prime Minister Li to push China's geopolitics and commerce, particularly the Silk Road Economic Belt to control China's backyard: energy, transport and security dominance in Central Asia.

A tougher line from a Republican-controlled Congress may make US-China engagement bumpier than ever in 2015, while the US electoral cycle weakens President Obama just as President Xi cements his authority for year three of ten.

Chinese companies are closing in on their Western competitors
Globally significant is the business power shift from west to east. Chinese companies and banks are all expanding rapidly westward, with many of these businesses not simply aping Western companies but beating them.

Alibaba (online commerce) is now closing in on US behemoth Walmart as the most valuable retailer in the world. 2015 could see it become one of the top ten most valuable businesses in the world.

China's move to significant global business player has been rapid, with it now the second largest foreign investor in the US behind Canada. It raises significant questions about the use of soft, economic and business power and how that plays into China's political influence across the globe.

The West needs money. China, a nation of savers with a $260bn trade surplus with the rest of the world in 2013, has it.

In 2015, the West will face many of the challenges experienced by African nations which have seen major levels of investment from China, often to service the latter's growing demand for food.

This raises challenges for Western businesses at just the time when the political discussion in many Western nations is more about de-globalisation and cutting businesses "down to size".

That's the anti-markets trend which has been strong in the West since the financial crisis, and will still be very visible throughout 2015.

Watch for significant developments in artificial intelligence and computers that think, fresh troubles in the eurozone and a major breakthrough in the hunt for an Ebola vaccine led by GlaxoSmithKline and Johnson & Johnson.

There will be continuing good economic news from the US (still the world's global powerhouse), support for global growth from the commodities price squeeze and, in general, a more optimistic economic and business mood at the end of the year compared to the beginning.
BBC.com

Zionism- The new imperialism

After reaching its zenith, classical imperialism may have declined but its institutions and traditions have remained for historians to study and understand. After evolving through different stages, its objectives were accomplished by justifying the process on moral, religious, political and economic grounds.

When the Europeans discovered the three continents — North America, Africa, and Australasia — they propagated that these were lands without people. It meant that the land was no one’s property and, therefore, could be occupied and used by the imperial powers.

In North America, the settlers occupied land by depriving native tribes of their property. This argument is advanced in the The Frontier Thesis by historian Turner. On the other hand, Australia became the dumping ground for convicts and criminals, who were transported from Britain to work as cheap labour. It was the government’s policy to shift its excess population to the newly discovered continents.

It is another historical epoch but Israel’s occupation of Palestine reflects how classical imperialism has been recreated for use in the modern world
Another policy of imperialism was to establish colonies in the conquered countries. After the conquest of Ireland, England settled its Protestant citizens there, with the objective of controlling the local population. As the landlords were Protestants who were supported and protected by England, the Irish peasants suffered exploitation and mistreatment. This conflict between Protestants and Catholics continues to the present day, especially in Northern Ireland. England adopted the policy of colonisation in North America and in the African continent, where the goldmines in South Africa and the diamond mines of modern-day Zimbabwe were an attraction for them.

As political power strengthened, English imperialism became responsible for committing atrocities using new technological weapons. In Africa, the tribal people lived a simple life when they encountered the white people. They fought with spears, bows and arrows, while the English fought with cannons, rifles and guns decimating the opposing forces easily. Terror and violence were used for political domination. Religious forces were also employed in order to further the stronghold of imperialism. Missionaries arrived to convert the heathens to Christianity in order to make them modern and civilised.

England and the European powers, including France, Germany and Belgium continued to exploit the resources of the African continent. Leopold II, the Belgian king is remembered for his shocking brutality and exploitation in Congo, which was also condemned by the Europeans. Joseph Conrad’s novel Heart of Darkness exposes the rapacity and cruelty of the Belgian forces and suffering of the Africans. The intervention of Europeans and the economic exploitation of the African natural resources became known in history as the ‘scramble for Africa’.

Africa was depopulated because of the slave trade, casualties, war and deprivation of their national wealth. Their peace and prosperity and their simple life was destroyed by the civilisation mission of the Europeans. Chinua Achebe in his novel, Things fall Apart, portrays the impact of colonialism on the traditional society of Africa which was destroyed as a result.

In the modern period, Israel is emulating the methodology of classical imperialism to strengthen its state. By propagating that Palestine was a land without people, it justified its occupation and use for cultivation as well as settlement. Israel also adopted the policy of terror on the Palestinians to appropriate their property. Its terrorist organisation is responsible for genocide of the Palestinians. In Deir Yassin (1948), the whole population of the village was massacred. This terrified the people from other villages and they fled from Palestine to take refuge in different Arab countries. As the Jewish population was not large enough to counter the Palestinians, the Israeli government encouraged the Russians, Eastern Europeans and the Middle Eastern Jewish communities to come to Israel and settle there. The policy of colonisation still continues.

After the 1967 war, Israel occupied East Jerusalem, West Bank and Golan Heights. Israel is systematically building new houses in the West Bank as well as expelling the Palestinians from East Jerusalem on a variety of different pretexts.

Israel also follows the policy of keeping the Palestinians subdued by raiding their villages, cutting olive trees and destroying their farmland. Over the years, Israel has become not only a military but a nuclear power. Its army is well equipped with new, technological weapons. Therefore, each year, it is a routine for Israel to invade Palestinian territories, kill thousands of Palestinians and demolish their infrastructure like schools, hospitals and libraries only to return after a ceasefire. The Palestinians live in prison-like conditions in constant fear and mental agony. Thousands of them are in Israeli prisons because of their resistance and endure torture which is legalised by the Israeli judiciary.

The question is how long Israel would continue to crush the Palestinians’ right for their homeland and how long it would spend its energy and resources to keep the Israeli State intact against any challenge. Israeli imperialism has already created a Palestinian nationalism which will fight against Israeli atrocities and harshness and finally emerge as a triumphant nation.

Zionism- The new imperialism
by Mubarak Ali, dawn.com

Counterterrorism consensus

AS Pakistan grieves the loss of its children in Peshawar, a national consensus has emerged to fight and destroy the TTP terrorists responsible for this latest atrocity. The Pakistan Army will no doubt intensify its ongoing campaign against these terrorists and should be extended all possible support. Hopefully, Pakistan’s political leaders will suspend their power games to address this clear and present danger to the country’s security and progress.

This massacre is another reminder that over the past 30 years, Pakistan has been the principal victim of terrorism. It experienced the Indian-sponsored bomb blasts in the 1970s; the Soviet-Najibullah attacks during the 1980s; Shia-Sunni violence during the 1990s; and Al Qaeda and TTP terrorism over the last decade.

Until the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan, terrorism was an ‘external’ threat for Pakistan; it was ‘internalised’ due to two strategic mistakes: Pakistan’s sponsorship of Islamic extremists against the Soviets, in collaboration with the US and its allies, and the subsequent decision to support religious militants, rather than the indigenous Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front, during the 1990s Kashmiri uprising against Indian occupation.

The ghosts of these strategic mistakes continue to haunt Pakistan in its current battle against the TTP. Al Qaeda emerged from the detritus of the anti-Soviet Arab and other foreign fighters. It has masterminded many of the worst terrorist attacks against Pakistan. It attracted rebellious militants from Uzbekistan, Chechnya and Xinqiang, and spawned several of the current components of the TTP.

Today, there is an opportunity to build a genuine global consensus to eliminate terrorism.
To eliminate the TTP and its ilk, Pakistan needs to implement a well-considered plan to capture or kill these terrorists. It must also take bold measures to counter the causes for the emergence and existence of violent extremism in Pakistan: ignorance, greed, fear and poverty.

The hate and bigotry being spread from Pakistan’s pulpits and madressahs; the corruption that allows terrorists to roam the streets and infiltrate institutions; the crimes that generate financing for terrorist organisations; the fear which provides them impunity from prosecution for their crimes, and the absence of employment which results in recruits for their ranks, must all be addressed through comprehensive and courageous policies.

Hopefully, the national unity generated by the Peshawar atrocity will enable the government and the security forces to formulate and execute such policies. As a first step, all political parties should be required to openly condemn the TTP and its associates and break any links they may have with them.

However, terrorism is not merely an internal social and political issue within Pakistan. It has a vital external dimension which requires to be honestly addressed by Pakistan and the ‘international community’.

To do so, it should be recalled that most of today’s terrorist organisations mutated from insurgent groups initially sponsored by one or more states against adversaries. This holds true for the Tamil Tigers, Al Qaeda, the TTP, the Haqqanis, the IMU, the Etim and the Islamic State. Both Western and domestic commentators often focus on Pakistan’s support to militant groups in Afghanistan and Kashmir. But this is a ‘game’ which several states have played or are still playing against each other.

Global efforts to eliminate terrorism have foundered so far as rival powers have sought to outlaw groups threatening them while excluding others they themselves sponsor or support. The UN has not even agreed on a definition of ‘terrorism’.

Today, there is an opportunity to build a genuine global consensus to eliminate terrorism from Pakistan, this region and internationally. Each of the major powers have a stake in combating terrorist groups that pose a threat to their national security. The Etim targets China; the IMU aims to destabilise Central Asia; the Chechens threaten Russia. The US is targeted by Al Qaeda, the IS and their associates. Iran faces IS and Jundullah. Saudi Arabia is battling Al Qaeda and potentially threatened by the IS. Pakistan confronts the TTP and the Balochistan Liberation Army, both supported by Afghan and Indian intelligence.

In building such a global consensus, there are new possibilities for agreements between Pakistan and Afghanistan and perhaps even with India.

President Ghani appears genuine in his desire to rebuild a close relationship with Pakistan. If so, Pakistan should do all possible to help in stabilising Afghanistan and supporting the Afghan ‘unity’ government. Pakistan has offered to help reconciliation in Afghanistan if Kabul desires this. In exchange, President Ghani (and the US) has offered to target the TTP’s safe havens in Afghanistan.

The extent of Pakistan’s influence over the Afghan Taliban, led by Mullah Omar, is uncertain, especially in the wake of Zarb-i-Azb, which has reportedly disrupted not only the TTP but also the Haqqanis. Any inter-mediation involving the Afghan Taliban should be made conditional on their openly breaking their links with the TTP, Al Qaeda and associated terrorist groups such as the Etim.

In any event, the ‘strategic value’ — if any — of the Afghan Taliban for Pakistan pales in significance when weighed against the importance of Islamabad’s strategic relationships with China, the US and Afghanistan.

Kabul’s cooperation will help to also end Indian support to the TTP and BLA. However, it would be wise for both countries to evolve an understanding for mutual restraint in Kashmir. If the Modi government holds back from the planned steps to change occupied Kashmir’s current status and allows genuine democratic rights to the Kashmiris, Pakistan should do all possible to restrain the ‘Kashmir Jihad Council’ from any provocative actions.

Such regional arrangements with Afghanistan and India could be broadened to include other ‘stakeholders’: Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, Russia and the US. Cooperation can be extended to jointly combating Etim, IMU and the IS.

The challenge cannot be underestimated. It is difficult for states to surrender tactical assets and advantages. It is even more difficult to eliminate groups motivated by local and national grievances and religious convictions, however misplaced. Today, all the major militant and terrorist groups feed off the same narrative: injustice and suppression of Muslims across several geographies. Part of a global consensus must offer an effective counter to this narrative and erode its appeal to disaffected Muslim youth across the world.

Counterterrorism consensus
by Munir Akram, dawn.com
The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.

More: We can defeat Terrorists 

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Let’s be honest, Islam has a problem right now by Fareed Zakaria

When television host Bill Maher declares on his weekly show that “the Muslim world . . . has too much in common with ISIS ” and guest Sam Harris says that Islam is “the mother lode of bad ideas,” I understand why people are upset. Maher and Harris, an author, made crude simplifications and exaggerations. And yet, they were also talking about something real.

I know the arguments against speaking of Islam as violent and reactionary. It has a following of 1.6 billion people. Places such as Indonesia and India have hundreds of millions of Muslims who don’t fit these caricatures. That’s why Maher and Harris are guilty of gross generalizations. But let’s be honest. Islam has a problem today. The places that have trouble accommodating themselves to the modern world are disproportionately Muslim.

In 2013, of the top 10 groups that perpetrated terrorist attacks, seven were Muslim. Of the top 10 countries where terrorist attacks took place, seven were Muslim-majority. The Pew Research Center rates countries on the level of restrictions that governments impose on the free exercise of religion. Of the 24 most restrictive countries, 19 are Muslim-majority. Of the 21 countries that have laws against apostasy, all have Muslim majorities.

There is a cancer of extremism within Islam today. A small minority of Muslims celebrates violence and intolerance and harbors deeply reactionary attitudes toward women and minorities. While some confront these extremists, not enough do so, and the protests are not loud enough. How many mass rallies have been held against the Islamic State (also known as ISIS) in the Arab world today?

The caveat, “Islam today,” is important. The central problem with Maher’s and Harris’s analyses are that they take a reality — extremism in Islam — and describe it in ways that suggest it is inherent in Islam. Maher says Islam is “the only religion that acts like the Mafia, that will [expletive] kill you if you say the wrong thing, draw the wrong picture or write the wrong book.” He’s right about the viciousness but wrong to link it to “Islam” — instead of “some Muslims.”

Harris prides himself on being highly analytical — with a PhD, no less. I learned in graduate school that you can never explain a variable phenomenon with a fixed cause. So, if you are asserting that Islam is inherently violent and intolerant — “the mother lode of bad ideas” — then, since Islam has been around for 14 centuries, we should have seen 14 centuries of this behavior.

Harris should read Zachary Karabell’s book “Peace Be Upon You: Fourteen Centuries of Muslim, Christian and Jewish Conflict and Cooperation.” What he would discover is that there have been wars but also many centuries of peace. Islam has at times been at the cutting edge of modernity, but like today, it has also been the great laggard. As Karabell explained to me, “If you exclude the last 70 years or so, in general the Islamic world was more tolerant of minorities than the Christian world. That’s why there were more than a million Jews living in the Arab world until the early 1950s — nearly 200,000 in Iraq alone.”

If there were periods when the Islamic world was open, modern, tolerant and peaceful, this suggests that the problem is not in the religion’s essence and that things can change once more. So why is Maher making these comments? I understand that as a public intellectual he feels the need to speak what he sees as the unvarnished truth (though his “truth” is simplified and exaggerated). But surely there is another task for public intellectuals as well — to try to change the world for good.

Does he really think that comparing Islam to the Mafia will do this? Harris says that he wants to encourage “nominal Muslims who don’t take the faith seriously” to reform the religion. So, the strategy to reform Islam is to tell 1.6 billion Muslims, most of whom are pious and devout, that their religion is evil and they should stop taking it seriously?

That is not how Christianity moved from its centuries-long embrace of violence, crusades, inquisitions, witch-burning and intolerance to its modern state. On the contrary, intellectuals and theologians celebrated the elements of the religion that were tolerant, liberal and modern, and emphasized them, while giving devout Christians reasons to take pride in their faith. A similar approach — reform coupled with respect — will work with Islam over time.

The stakes are high in this debate. You can try to make news or you can make a difference. I hope Maher starts doing the latter.

The latest story has provoked a lot of questions, objections and, sometimes, misunderstandings.
Fareed Zakaria: Let’s be honest, Islam has a problem right now
by Fareed Zakaria, washingtonpost.com

Pakistan’s Lessons for Turkey NY Times

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, declared that Turkey is ready “for any cooperation in the fight against terrorism.” Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu argued that Islamic State militants pose a greater threat to Turkey and the Muslim world than to the West.

But Turkey’s dilemma is far more grave than its leaders realize. Indeed, Turkey’s current situation resembles the early years of Pakistan’s sponsorship of the Taliban. The Islamic State is recruiting militants in Turkey. And failure to clean its own house now could lead Turkey down the path of “Pakistanization,” whereby a resident jihadist infrastructure causes Sunni extremism to ingrain itself deeply within the fabric of society.

Although Turkey now recognizes the threat — the Turkish government voted to authorize military force in Iraq and Syria on Thursday — it has yet to come to terms with its own responsibility for helping to create it.

Turkey claims that radical groups grew stronger because moderates seeking the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria were not given adequate aid. But that is not the whole picture. As Francis J. Ricciardone Jr., the former American ambassador to Turkey, has pointed out, Ankara supported radical groups, including the Nusra Front. Indeed, during the early days of Syria’s civil war, jihadist groups funneled fighters and resources through Turkey into Syria.

Turkey’s intervention in the Syrian civil war parallels Pakistan’s support of the Taliban to affect the course of the Afghan civil war. But the jihadism abetted by Pakistan did not remain across the Afghan border. Turkey may now be witnessing the beginnings of a similar blowback.

While the magnitude of Turkey’s recent engagement of jihadist proxies isn’t comparable to Pakistan’s long history of jihadist sponsorship, the late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s ill-fated relationship with the Sunni extremists of Pakistan’s Deobandi movement is still instructive for Turkey. Pakistan’s Deobandis dedicated themselves to implementing “the system of the Caliphate of the Rightly Guided,” a Sunni sectarian state to serve as a South Asian stepping stone to a worldwide Islamic caliphate.

Pakistan’s experience with blowback began prior to Ms. Bhutto’s tenure, when General Zia ul-Haq’s regime backed mujahedeen militias as proxies to combat Soviet forces in Afghanistan. Organized by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence directorate with assistance from the United States and Saudi Arabia, the recruitment networks within Pakistan started a radicalization process among segments of Pakistan’s population. The most susceptible group was the more than three million Afghan refugees. (The I.S.I. in particular backed Hekmatyar Gulbuddin’s Hezb-i-Islami, which was part of a rival to movement to the Deobandis.)

Afghan refugee boys began attending Deobandi madrassas, and small numbers of teachers and students began joining militant groups to fight the Soviets. Upon the Soviet withdrawal and the fall of the Afghan Communist government, the mujahedeen turned on one another, prolonging Afghanistan’s civil war, and the presence of millions of Afghan refugees in Pakistan.

In 1994, Ms. Bhutto began to abet militancy to secure Pakistani objectives in Afghanistan. The Bhutto government facilitated a paramilitary force of thousands of madrassa students to cross the border and take control of Afghanistan’s Kandahar Province. With Pakistan’s help, this militia of “Taliban,” literally “students,” conquered large swaths of Afghan territory and declared its commander, Mullah Omar, to be caliph. Like the Taliban before them, the Islamic State has designated its commander, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as caliph and calls the territories under its control a caliphate.

Their militancy soon crossed the border. After the initial stage of mobilizing volunteers and weapons for jihad in Afghanistan, a second phase developed in which Pakistan witnessed a wave of anti-Shiite violence, including bombings of Karachi’s major Shiite mosques by the Taliban’s sister organization in Pakistan, Sipah-e Sahaba.

The Turkish government’s decision to turn a blind eye to Islamic State activity within its borders has similarly led to the extremists’ increasing influence in certain areas of Turkey’s major cities. The recent and unprecedented arson attacks on Shiite mosques in Istanbul may indicate that Turkey is entering this second phase. Turkey is home to only a small Shiite community; but Turkey’s Alevis, a heterodox Muslim sect often regarded as heretical by Sunnis, constitute about 20 percent of Turkey’s population.

A campaign by Sunni extremists against the Alevi community could lead Turkey into a Pakistan-like vortex of sectarian violence and radicalization. The present government’s own politics of polarization, illustrated by Mr. Erdogan’s baiting of the opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu due to his Alevi background during Turkey’s recent presidential election campaign, may further inflame sectarian tensions. And Islamic State militants will not hesitate to exploit the Sunni-Alevi fault line in Turkish society.

Pakistan’s final and most dangerous stage of extremism occurred when the flow of militants and resources was reversed. As the Taliban conquered most of Afghanistan, it provided training camps and other logistical support to its allies, making it harder for Pakistan to control militant organizations inside its borders. After 9/11, Gen. Pervez Musharraf attempted to crack down on militants inside Pakistan. His efforts culminated in the 2007 Red Mosque battle in Islamabad and the subsequent coalescing of militants into the movement known as the Pakistani Taliban.

Turkey has not experienced this stage yet. But the Islamic State may find fertile recruiting ground among Turkey’s 1.3 million Syrian refugees. And Turkish citizens may be drawn into the orbit of militancy just as segments of Pakistan’s population have been. If the Islamic State’s Turkish networks remain intact, Turkey runs the risk that homegrown militants will be empowered by the return of fighters from Islamic State territory in Syria and Iraq.

Ms. Bhutto’s strategy of employing militant proxies to create a client state in Afghanistan succeeded — but at a high price for Pakistan. That is a warning for Turkey, which must recognize that it cannot shield itself from Sunni militancy while pursuing a Sunni sectarian foreign policy in the Middle East.
Pakistan’s Lessons for Turkey
by MICHAEL M. TANCHUM and HALIL M. KARAVELI, mobile.nytimes.com

The social contract debate in Muslim Countries

CAN the prevalent political unrest and discontent in Muslim societies be regarded as a desire for change? In other words, are Muslim societies in search of new social contracts?

The militant struggle is all about a complete repla­cement of existing social contracts with an Islamic code of life. Both non-violent radicals and traditional religio-political forces are pursuing varying agendas ranging from Islamisation of their respective societies to reformation of and adjustments in constitutions in line with their perceived Islamic ideals.

Interestingly, these Islamist forces are not satisfied with the systems of democracy, controlled democracy or monarchies in their respective countries. Does the problem really lie with Muslim societies’ social contracts with their states, or is it the outcome of other pressures Muslim societies are subjected to?

Various religious agendas are competing with the state’s social contract with its people.
While identifying the underlying unrest in underdeveloped or developing societies, academicians usually factor in pressures of rapid globalisation and a sense of increasing aspirations among people. It may be true in case of diaspora communities. Others underscore structural social, religious and political narratives and behaviours of these societies, which they believe are not compatible with the pace of changes taking place in the world. No doubt global changes affect our daily lives, positively or negatively.

The emergence of a new middle class is another aspect of the debate. Middle classes want political empowerment in their respective societies. Governance issues and increasing non-functionality of traditional delivery systems in Muslim countries is another factor. These and other factors of growing resentment among Muslim societies with their respective states and constitutions have combined with a dearth of scholarship.

Another important question is, should these factors — structural, internal or global — raise the need for subversion of existing social contracts or constitutions?

A social contract ensures harmonious socio-economic and political balance in a society and provides a framework for the formation of a government and laws and their enforcement. The Arab Spring has not been successful in many countries in terms of the formation of new social contracts.

Failure to develop consensus among all segments of society on a new social contract has pushed Egypt again into an authoritarian regime. Tunisia provides an important example of drafting a new social contract, where unlike the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the Islamist Ennahda Movement did not insist on enshrining Sharia in the constitution and forged an alliance with secular parties.

Yemen is experiencing a different challenge in the formation of a new social contract, which is giving rise to questions of tribal and geographical representations in the constitution. Indonesia and Pakistan are among the Muslim nations where the constitutional reform process is intact and keeps ethnic communities together and tied to the state.

Even Muslim clergy in these countries is in favour of a continuity of the incumbent constitutional and democratic processes. A recent moot of leading religious scholars in Islamabad noted that Pakistan’s Constitution is a national-level social contract and in the light of Islamic teachings every Pakistani is bound to abide by it. Scholars also asserted that national-level disputes and conflicts, which are shared by all and not linked to particular religious sects or communities, should be settled on the basis of majority opinion. A minority cannot be granted the right to impose its opinion on the majority.

Although religious scholars do not regard democracy as a complete, ideal form of government, most of them believe it can be useful and effective for ensuring peaceful coexistence and pluralism in society. Interestingly, some religious scholars argue that even if rulers impose excessive taxes and force people to pay without legal justification for this, it is better for people to defend themselves by adopting peaceful ways than by revolting against the state.

The militants have different opinions and want to impose their version of the Islamic state through the use of force. The Constitution provides shields against militant, religious, anarchist, ultra-nationalist or ethnic ambitions that might seek to create imbalances in society.

The problem arises when political forces start believing in the extra-constitutional solution of issues, which ultimately encourages militants and ambitious radicals and strengthens anti-constitutional and anti-democratic narratives. Especially in the context of countries such as Pakistan, which has a long history of military interventions and domination of political institutions by the military, such narratives provide support to the militants.

The extra-constitutional power struggle within elites and powerful institutions creates confusion about the basic concept of a social contract. The extremists are the beneficiaries of such confusion and they use it for expanding their support bases across the country.

A review of the militants’ arguments reveals that they advocate an alternative system on the basis of loopholes in existing power structures. Asmatullah Muawiya, leader of a major Punjabi Taliban faction who recently renounced terrorism, had joined Al Qaeda and the Taliban on similar grounds. Muawiya had written letters to the media before the 2013 general elections and raised questions about the democratic system, which, he felt, was not providing relief to the common man. One of the reasons behind his renunciation of violence in Pakistan, is the ongoing debate among religious scholars on issues like violent struggles, the Constitution, democracy and Islam, which has created an intellectual challenge for the militants.

Usually, when political actors fail to gain their share in power, they directly attack the Constitution and suggest extra-constitutional measures to fix problems, which fundamentally are not linked with the Constitution. At the same time, powerful institutions, which is the military in Pakistan though the judiciary has tried to assert itself of late, sabotage the social contract. This subversion turns the power balance in their favour but in the longer run causes structural problems. This discourse in many Muslim countries is a primary factor behind their decline.

Muslim countries, especially Pakistan, cannot afford the subversion of their respective constitutions as the social imbalances and rise of violent and non-violent radicalism can completely transform the situation, which the radicals have shown they can achieve without paying a high price.
By Muhammad Amir Rana, dawn.com
The writer is a security analyst.
Published in Dawn, October 5th, 2014

Only One Thing Will Make Israel Change Course by Noam Chomsky

Hi
On August 26, Israel and the Palestinian Authority both accepted a cease-fire agreement after a 50-day Israeli assault on Gaza that left 2,100 Palestinians dead and vast landscapes of destruction behind.

The agreement calls for an end to military action by Israel and Hamas as well as an easing of the Israeli siege that has strangled Gaza for many years.

This is, however, just the most recent of a series of cease-fire agreements reached after each of Israel's periodic escalations of its unremitting assault on Gaza.

Since November 2005 the terms of these agreements have remained essentially the same. The regular pattern is for Israel to disregard whatever agreement is in place, while Hamas observes it—as Israel has conceded—until a sharp increase in Israeli violence elicits a Hamas response, followed by even fiercer brutality.

These escalations are called “mowing the lawn” in Israeli parlance. The most recent was more accurately described as “removing the topsoil” by a senior U.S. military officer, quoted in Al Jazeera America.

The first of this series was the Agreement on Movement and Access between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in November 2005.

It called for a crossing between Gaza and Egypt at Rafah for the export of goods and the transit of people; crossings between Israel and Gaza for goods and people; the reduction of obstacles to movement within the West Bank; bus and truck convoys between the West Bank and Gaza; the building of a seaport in Gaza; and the reopening of the airport in Gaza that Israeli bombing had demolished.

That agreement was reached shortly after Israel withdrew its settlers and military forces from Gaza. The motive for the disengagement was explained by Dov Weisglass, a confidant of then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who was in charge of negotiating and implementing it.

“The significance of the disengagement plan is the freezing of the peace process,” Weisglass told Haaretz. “And when you freeze that process, you prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, and you prevent a discussion on the refugees, the borders and Jerusalem. Effectively, this whole package called the Palestinian state, with all that it entails, has been removed indefinitely from our agenda. And all this with authority and permission. All with a [U.S.] presidential blessing and the ratification of both houses of Congress.”

“The disengagement is actually formaldehyde,” Weisglass added. “It supplies the amount of formaldehyde that is necessary so there will not be a political process with the Palestinians.”

This pattern has continued to the present: through Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009 to Pillar of Defense in 2012 to this summer's Protective Edge, the most extreme exercise in mowing the lawn—so far.

For more than 20 years, Israel has been committed to separating Gaza from the West Bank in violation of the Oslo Accords it signed in 1993, which declare Gaza and the West Bank to be an inseparable territorial unity.

A look at a map explains the rationale. Separated from Gaza, any West Bank enclaves left to Palestinians have no access to the outside world. They are contained by two hostile powers, Israel and Jordan, both close U.S. allies—and contrary to illusions, the U.S. is very far from a neutral “honest broker.”

Furthermore, Israel has been systematically taking over the Jordan Valley, driving out Palestinians, establishing settlements, sinking wells and otherwise ensuring that the region—about one-third of the West Bank, with much of its arable land—will ultimately be integrated into Israel along with the other regions being taken over.

The remaining Palestinian cantons will be completely imprisoned. Unification with Gaza would interfere with these plans, which trace back to the early days of the occupation and have had steady support from the major Israeli political blocs.

Israel might feel that its takeover of Palestinian territory in the West Bank has proceeded so far that there is little to fear from some limited form of autonomy for the enclaves that remain to Palestinians.

There is also some truth to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's observation: “Many elements in the region understand today that, in the struggle in which they are threatened, Israel is not an enemy but a partner.” Presumably he was alluding to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates.

Israel's leading diplomatic correspondent Akiva Eldar adds, however, that “all those 'many elements in the region' also understand that there is no brave and comprehensive diplomatic move on the horizon without an agreement on the establishment of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders and a just, agreed-upon solution to the refugee problem.”

That is not on Israel's agenda, he points out, and is in fact in direct conflict with the 1999 electoral program of the governing Likud coalition, never rescinded, which “flatly rejects the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state west of the Jordan River.”

Some knowledgeable Israeli commentators, notably columnist Danny Rubinstein, believe that Israel is poised to reverse course and relax its stranglehold on Gaza.

We'll see.

The record of these past years suggests otherwise and the first signs are not auspicious. As Operation Protective Edge ended, Israel announced its largest appropriation of West Bank land in 30 years, almost 1,000 acres.

It is commonly claimed on all sides that, if the two-state settlement is dead as a result of Israel's takeover of Palestinian lands, then the outcome will be one state west of the Jordan.

Some Palestinians welcome this outcome, anticipating that they can then engage in a fight for equal rights modeled on the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa. Many Israeli commentators warn that the resulting “demographic problem” of more Arab than Jewish births and diminishing Jewish immigration will undermine their hope for a “democratic Jewish state.”

But these widespread beliefs are dubious.

The realistic alternative to a two-state settlement is that Israel will continue to carry forward the plans it has been implementing for years: taking over whatever is of value to it in the West Bank, while avoiding Palestinian population concentrations and removing Palestinians from the areas that it is absorbing. That should avoid the dreaded “demographic problem.”

The areas being taken over include a vastly expanded Greater Jerusalem, the area within the illegal separation wall, corridors cutting through the regions to the east and probably the Jordan Valley.

Gaza will likely remain under its usual harsh siege, separated from the West Bank. And the Syrian Golan Heights—like Jerusalem, annexed in violation of Security Council orders—will quietly become part of Greater Israel. In the meantime, West Bank Palestinians will be contained in unviable cantons, with special accommodation for elites in standard neocolonial style.

For a century, the Zionist colonization of Palestine has proceeded primarily on the pragmatic principle of the quiet establishment of facts on the ground, which the world was to ultimately come to accept. It has been a highly successful policy. There is every reason to expect it to persist as long as the United States provides the necessary military, economic, diplomatic and ideological support.

For those concerned with the rights of the brutalized Palestinians, there can be no higher priority than working to change U.S. policies, not an idle dream by any means.

Noam Chomsky: Only One Thing Will Make Israel Change Course
by Noam Chomsky, inthesetimes.com

Kissinger's lessons for today's policymakers

Kissinger is not wicked, but a realist par excellence, writes Oskanian
As US President Barack Obama was outlining his strategy to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), I was finishing reading Henry Kissinger's new book "World Order".

It's a Kissinger book. It's insightful and to the point. He takes a grand view of how we got here. He is dispassionate about understanding and explaining the foreign policy decisions that have been taken and that continue to miss the mark of the all-important equilibrium among great powers. This has been the focus of his writings and speeches for four decades, beginning with his first book, "A World Restored", describing such efforts in the 19th century.

The bear knows seven songs and they are all about honey - I don't know if that's an Armenian saying or a Russian one, but it's true for Kissinger as well. All of his songs are about understanding Europe's path to a balance of power and the ways to apply the lessons of those experiences to contemporary conflicts. It is remarkable how consistent he has remained over the decades.

Kissinger's fascination with this period lies in his hope to find insights on the exercise of power by statesmen such as Castlereagh and Metternich for the development of an international structure that contributed to peace in the century between the Congress of Vienna and the outbreak of World War I.

Fundamental problem

"The most fundamental problem of politics," wrote Kissinger, "is not the control of wickedness but the limitation of righteousness".

This is how Kissinger summed up the essence of the "idealism versus realism" debate in his earliest work - his dissertation.

Obama is an idealist, a righteous man. Kissinger is not wicked, but a realist par excellence. His early academic convictions and on-the-job experience as national security adviser to President Richard Nixon and later secretary of state under Presidents Nixon and Gerald Ford, makes him the quintessential realist and the exemplary practitioner of balance of power plays in our time.

At the infancy of the Syrian conflict three years ago, when Obama rushed to declare that Bashar al-Assad must go, Kissinger was quick to call the pronouncement premature and a mistake for not knowing who will fill the vacuum created by Assad's departure.

At 91, his "World Order" may be his last appeal for pragmatism and realism in the face of an increasingly interdependent world with a disintegrating world order.

Today, that realism is more than necessary in the Middle East where the nation-state system is shattered by those who, under the guise of religion, wish to take and wield power in ways that are incongruous with a 21st century world. This dangerous chaos is at least partly the outcome of strategically uncertain, albeit morally laudable, US policy in the larger Middle East.

Kissinger looks at the world, in whole or in parts, from the perspective of a desirable balance of power and the US role in securing it. This policy tool provides the anchor for his realism and allows him to see world events not purely from the point of view of ideology, but rather from a more pragmatic, result-driven perspective.

When in 1973 it became clear that the Vietnam War is not winnable, Kissinger looked for a graceful way out. He forged a detente with the Soviet Union and an opening to China, and then played off both to create a triangular balance of power that preserved US influence after its retreat from Vietnam.

More recently, when the US Senate ratified NATO's expansion to Eastern Europe in May 1998, Kissinger knowingly wrote: "Russia is bound to have a special concern for security around its vast periphery and the West needs to be careful not to extend its integrated military system too close to Russia's borders."

And at the infancy of the Syrian conflict three years ago, when Obama rushed to declare that Bashar al-Assad must go, Kissinger was quick to call the pronouncement premature and a mistake for not knowing who will fill the vacuum created by Assad's departure.

Obama lacks this mastery. Obama's equivalent move to Kissinger's Vietnam balance of power play could be the triangulation between Shia Iran, the Sunni-dominant Gulf region and, Syria and Iraq. This requires a transcending of previously drawn lines and an ability to artfully skew the line between ideology and values.

Broad reconciliation

First, a broader region-wide process of Sunni-Shia reconciliation must begin and it must involve Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. For the common good, this requires understanding and compromise from all involved on issues from territorial disputes, nuclear proliferation and support to different group on both sides of the Sunni-Shia divide.

Second, the West and Iran must redouble their efforts to overcome the last hurdles to reach a sustainable deal on Iran's nuclear issue. Iran has consistently said that it wants to develop uranium enrichment technology for industrial use. Everyone agrees that Iran has the right to do so. The Iranians have also said that they will continue to honour their commitments and open their doors to observation as members of the non-proliferation community. The West must be more respectful of Iran's current industrial aims if it wants Iranian cooperation. That cooperation is critical not just to eliminate ISIL's threat, but for crucial longer term peace and stability in the region.

Third, just as an inclusive government in Baghdad is necessary so is a stable government in Damascus. The United States must recognise that its half-hearted support of the moderate opposition has been a failure and has made things worse for everyone, except ISIL. To train and arm the illusive Syrian moderate opposition to fight ISIL in Syria is too little and is a recipe for prolonging the Syrian civil war by continuing to breed extremist groups. The Syrian conflict and its possible resolution need to be framed differently and need to transcend Assad's person.

An opening to China, too, seemed unreal. But it happened and it worked. It was not a policy driven by morals, yet did no evil, was pragmatic and despite the earlier policy errors, brought stability to an unstable part of the world.

Kissinger's lessons for today's policymakers
by Vartan Oskanian, aljazeera.com
Vartan Oskanian is a member of Armenia's National Assembly, a former foreign minister and the founder of Yerevan's Civilitas Foundation.

The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.

Confronting the IS — preventing more Frankensteins

The forces of revenge, phobia and senseless bloodletting unleashed by the preposterous invasion of Iraq in 2003 continue to ravage the region and its people. An equilibrium, howsoever unjust, once knocked out, produces a whirlpool of cycles of violence that are not amenable to any quick resolution. This is especially true in a situation where the rationale for military intervention was a fabricated lie — a deception. The alleged existence of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) was the sole basis for launching the attack on a sovereign country and that too without any UN authorisation. Paradoxically, both George W Bush and Tony Blair, having said lies about the alleged existence of weapons of mass destruction in the ‘deadly’ arsenal of Saddam, not only survived but were re-elected by supposedly the most ‘enlightened’ electorates of the world.
The US occupation of Iraq although camouflaged under the perceived existence of WMDs was intended to destroy the biggest military machine in the Middle East — one that could pose a danger to the state of Israel. The destruction of the country’s infrastructure was also accompanied by an irretrievable shift in its political and sectarian landscape.
This void, left behind by the removal of a regime, the systems which held the country together, was filled by the emergence of groups, mafias that were on rampage — plundering, attacking and looting with no fear of retribution. The regime of Nouri al Maliki began to advance a ‘sectarian’ agenda. This is the worst thing that could happen to a country already under foreign occupation. Polarisation followed and soon there was a collapse of order on a gigantic scale. A many-dimensional conflict ensued that would not only sap the vitality and strength of a country and its populace but also generate a whole series of ethnic and sectarian battles plunging the country and the region into a war with no goals and no strategies.
A somewhat similar catastrophe was being enacted in Syria. The Western countries, principally the US, had this paranoid mindset that the toppling of the Assad regime would help resolve most of the regional security issues besides, of course, making Israel safe from the assaults of Hezbollah, whose patrons and financiers are Iran and Syria. It was not realised that the very forces that were sponsoring would sow the seeds of discord and spread mayhem and anarchy that could pose a potential threat to their ‘vital’ interests in the region.
The IS phenomenon was almost a natural consequence of the vacuum, the atrocities of the factional militias inflicted upon one another under the watch of the diabolical Nouri al Maliki regime, the destruction of villages, towns, the displacement of millions from their ancestral homes. In the milieu in which the IS (formerly ISIS) was born, there was no room for concepts like tolerance, accommodation and understanding. The group soon challenged and swept away the vestiges of a broken order in parts of Syria and Iraq.
The group comprised frustrated and deeply-troubled Sunni extremists who were on the margins of a socio-economic and sectarian order that did not hold any promise for the majority of the people in the region. They soon began to espouse a philosophy of hatred based on the exclusion of those who did not share their ideals and goals. As they embarked upon a policy of challenging and confronting the state authority in both Syria and Iraq, they found whole bands of new adherents to their purported cause of ‘restoring the ethnic and sectarian balance that has been shattered by the upheavals of the last 11 years’. Muslims from different parts of the world began to flock to the region to enlist in what they thought a noble cause. They thought justice would soon prevail and the injustice would end.
The IS took control of banks, industries, oil wells and refineries, weapons, transport and military hardware, etc. That made them independent as far as resources are concerned. It declared one of its leaders ‘Amirul Momineen’ — the commander of the faithful. This was done to convey the message that a new Islamic State is born which would demand allegiance from all Muslims. Owing to the rallying cry of faith, many began to support this movement.
But soon there were many disappointments. The beheading of opponents and journalists caused a stir in the ranks of the movement for Islam does not permit such killings. Then the Kurds were targeted and there were huge displacements of people. This further alienated many well wishers of the movement. The destruction of property was without any valid reason. But more importantly, the supporters began to worry about the ultimate goal and objective of the movement. Because how could a movement that kills journalists, female professionals and causes the expulsion of innocent Muslims from their homes, claim to be heading towards the establishment of an egalitarian, welfare Islamic state? People soon began to break ranks with the movement.
The IS first generated hope, then disappointment. The Sunni Arab monarchies saw a threat to their fiefdoms. They rallied to oppose and confront the IS. They poured resources, mobilised their militaries, sought alliances in a bid to defeat the movement. That was understandable and natural. But people in distant lands were ‘alarmed’ — the United States began to see ‘mortal dangers’ from IS volunteers and decided to intervene to ‘save’ America from it.
The US and French bombing missions are obliterating whatever little is left of the infrastructure of the region. True, the bombs inflict damage on the movement’s arsenal and its treasure. That is one facet of the ‘second invasion’. But a deeper malaise is being caused yet again to the already tumbling political order. More zealots, more frustrated youth, more victims of the holocaust, would begin to emerge from the ashes of a collapsing IS, causing more violence, more instability and more chaos.
The regional countries which have a stake in the situation could have promoted a more harmonious response to the challenge the IS poses. With the West intervening in the crisis, suspicions are bound to be raised in Iran — a key ally of Bashar al-Assad. The West certainly does not want to give respite to the Syrian regime and yet that regime is also fighting the IS. Iran is supporting the Shia majority regime in Iraq which is also fighting the IS. The Sunni Arab monarchies are fighting against both IS as well as the Assad regime. Such a complex conflict would inevitably cause a stupendous and destructive reaction that will be immeasurably difficult to handle or contain .
The Middle East is in the grip of another fatal cycle of violence. The region and its people would bear the scars for generations. The only beneficiaries are Israel and the factories producing weapons in the West.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 29th, 2014.
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